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The Short and Long | 2026 Q2 Macro Investment Views

The Short and Long: Differentiated investment insights

08 April 2026

The Short and Long | CIO Weekly Bulletin

inflation

2 Jul 2026

Weekly Investment Insight

Investment Strategy

Weekly Spotlights

Tech-led bull market continues, Nikkei 225
at 90,000 in sight

2 Jul 2026

Japanese equities have continued their upward trajectory since
April, with TOPIX recently breaking above 4,000 and the Nikkei
225 surpassing 72,000. Stocks resumed their strong uptrend
following progress in Middle East peace negotiations, the
subsequent stabilization of US long-term rates, and the
smooth passage of the BoJ's June monetary policy meeting.


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closeup-network-space

China Economics: AI Supercycle vs. Domestic
Stagflation

25 Jun 2026

China's K-shaped economy appears to be playing out through the
contrast between an AI supercycle and domestic stagflation. AI is
driving industrial production and exports, with high-tech IP reaching
a five-year high. Citi Analysts maintain the headline GDP forecast at
4.5%YoY for 26Q2E and 4.7%YoY for 2026E. On policies, Citi Analysts
see an acceleration of targeted support for domestic demand but not
broad-based stimulus ahead.

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global-equities

Foreign Exchange

Investment Strategy

Weekly Spotlights

Citi Analysts think USDJPY will correct lower to
around ¥155/$ by the end of this year

2 Jul 2026

With the recent rise in JPY interest rates, long-term investors
such as insurance companies are likely to reduce overseas
investment. The long-term ceiling for the USDJPY will be
around ¥160/$, and Citi Analysts think the pair will correct
lower to around ¥155/$ by the end of this year and to around
¥145/$ by the end of next year.

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The medium-term bias is now towards
further weakness in cable

25 Jun 2026

Citi Analysts still expect that the Committee will continue to
hold rates for the remainder of the year, with the first cut in
2027Q2. The medium-term bias is now towards further
weakness in cable (to the 1.28 area) with further
underperformance also likely versus a resilient AUD and
RMB.

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Citi Wealth CIO podcast is out!

The Short and Long Podcast is Citi Wealth's Chief Investment Office flagship podcast series. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Kate Moore, each episode brings together professionals across markets, technology, and macroeconomics to deliver clear, timely perspectives on the forces shaping the investment landscape. Whether you are an investor, a business leader, or simply looking to better understand the markets, The Short and Long is our guide designed to help you navigate complexity with confidence and clarity.

Episode 2 : “A New Environment? Investing in an Age of Geopolitical & Macro Shock”

YouTube

In our second episode “A New Environment? Investing in an Age of Geopolitical & Macro Shock”, Kate is joined by Eric Van Nostrand, Chief Investment Officer of Lazard Asset Management and former Acting Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, and Conrad DeQuadros, Head of Economics at Citi Wealth’s Chief Investment Office, for a conversation on whether today's market optimism is justified and what a world reshaped by supply shocks, sticky inflation, and geopolitical disruption means for how investors should be building portfolios today.

View full version of The Short and Long Podcast on YouTube, Apple or Spotify

Episode 1 : “AI Through an Investor's Lens: Looking Beyond the Hype”

YouTube

In the inaugural episode “AI Through an Investor's Lens: Looking Beyond the Hype”, Kate is joined by Heath Terry, Global Sector Head of Technology and Communications Research at Citi Research, and Jordi Visser, Head of AI Macro Nexus Research for 22V, for a wide-ranging discussion on the unprecedented impact of artificial intelligence on markets and what it means for investors today.

View full version of The Short and Long Podcast on YouTube, Apple or Spotify

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