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The Short and Long | 2026 Q2 Macro Investment Views

The Short and Long: Differentiated investment insights

08 April 2026

The Short and Long | CIO Weekly Bulletin

inflation

17 Jun 2026

Weekly Investment Insight

Investment Strategy

Weekly Spotlights

Pricing first hike correctly only a 28% hit ratio

17 Jun 2026


Citi Analysts find 4 hits out of a total of 14, i.e. 28% chance to
price the first hike correctly. So, just because the market is
crying wolf does not necessarily mean it happens. Citi
Analysts are still thinking that a hike is far from guaranteed this
year and eventually expects cuts, partly because the
the improved NFP prints have not resulted in wage pressure
and because of the residual seasonality in the labor market.


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US Equities: The ongoing AI buildout and adoption trend are
triggering an exceptional earnings tailwind

11 Jun 2026

Underlying fundamental trajectories, which are mostly associated
with the ongoing AI buildout and adoption trend, are triggering
an exceptional earnings tailwind, for now. The magnitude of
Citi Analysts’ increased earnings projections allows for a revised
index target for year-end ’26. Citi Analysts think this is not a
traditional cycle and looks more like a one-time capex supercycle.
Citi Analysts presume that fundamentals and related price
action tell us we’re in middle innings.

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global-equities

Foreign Exchange

Investment Strategy

Weekly Spotlights

AUD outperformance could resume as the
best proxy for risk assets

17 Jun 2026

The RBA delivered a neutral to hawkish hold in its June
Monetary Policy Board meeting. The Governor’s press
conference still highlights the upside risks to inflation and that
today’s decision does not rule out further tightening. Therefore
25bps in August.

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CAD may underperform its commodity
peers over the medium term

11 Jun 2026

With the 1.40 target in USDCAD now within sight and the
tactical range of DXY now likely higher, USDCAD risks breaking
above the 1.4000 resistance area while renewing its
underperformance versus its commodity peers (AUD and NZD).

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Citi Wealth CIO podcast is out!

The Short and Long Podcast is Citi Wealth's Chief Investment Office flagship podcast series. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Kate Moore, each episode brings together professionals across markets, technology, and macroeconomics to deliver clear, timely perspectives on the forces shaping the investment landscape. Whether you are an investor, a business leader, or simply looking to better understand the markets, The Short and Long is our guide designed to help you navigate complexity with confidence and clarity.

Episode 2 : “A New Environment? Investing in an Age of Geopolitical & Macro Shock”

YouTube

In our second episode “A New Environment? Investing in an Age of Geopolitical & Macro Shock”, Kate is joined by Eric Van Nostrand, Chief Investment Officer of Lazard Asset Management and former Acting Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, and Conrad DeQuadros, Head of Economics at Citi Wealth’s Chief Investment Office, for a conversation on whether today's market optimism is justified and what a world reshaped by supply shocks, sticky inflation, and geopolitical disruption means for how investors should be building portfolios today.

View full version of The Short and Long Podcast on YouTube, Apple or Spotify

Episode 1 : “AI Through an Investor's Lens: Looking Beyond the Hype”

YouTube

In the inaugural episode “AI Through an Investor's Lens: Looking Beyond the Hype”, Kate is joined by Heath Terry, Global Sector Head of Technology and Communications Research at Citi Research, and Jordi Visser, Head of AI Macro Nexus Research for 22V, for a wide-ranging discussion on the unprecedented impact of artificial intelligence on markets and what it means for investors today.

View full version of The Short and Long Podcast on YouTube, Apple or Spotify

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